Enlargement of the European Union
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
The European Union originally consisted of six member states. It has since grown to 25 member states, and even more states plan to join: two new members in 2007, and possibly more after that. In order to join the Union, a state needs to fulfill the economic and political conditions generally known as the Copenhagen criteria.
Summary of past enlargements
For details see History of the European Union.
- In 1950, the French-German politician Robert Schuman presented his proposal of a united Europe, known as the Schuman declaration, which is considered to be the beginning of what is now the European Union.
- In 1951, a forerunner of the EU, the European Coal and Steel Community, was founded by Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg (the Benelux countries) and (West) Germany, France and Italy.
- In 1958 the six ECSC countries formed the European Economic Community which became the European Community and then the European Union.
- In 1973, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Denmark joined.
- In 1981, Greece joined.
- In 1986, Spain and Portugal joined.
- In 1990, East Germany was annexed by (West) Germany (see German reunification), adding the former East Germany to the union. This increased the area and population of the union, but not the number of member states.
- In 1995, Austria, Sweden and Finland joined.
- In 2004, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined.
Current EU statistics
| Country | Year joined | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita (PPP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 1995 | 8.2 | 83858 | 227.7 | 27900 |
| Belgium | 1958 | 10.3 | 30510 | 299.7 | 29200 |
| Cyprus1 | 2004 | 0.8 | 9250 | 9.4 | 15000 |
| Czech Republic | 2004 | 10.2 | 78866 | 157.1 | 15300 |
| Denmark | 19732 | 5.4 | 43094 | 155.3 | 28900 |
| Estonia | 2004 | 1.4 | 45226 | 15.5 | 11000 |
| Finland | 1995 | 5.2 | 337030 | 133.8 | 25800 |
| France | 1958 | 60.2 | 547030 | 1558 | 26000 |
| Germany | 19583 | 82.4 | 357021 | 2160 | 26200 |
| Greece | 1981 | 10.7 | 131940 | 203.3 | 19100 |
| Hungary | 2004 | 10.0 | 93030 | 134.0 | 13300 |
| Ireland | 1973 | 3.9 | 70280 | 113.7 | 29300 |
| Italy | 1958 | 58.0 | 301320 | 1455 | 25100 |
| Latvia | 2004 | 2.3 | 64589 | 21.0 | 8900 |
| Lithuania | 2004 | 3.5 | 65200 | 30.0 | 8400 |
| Luxembourg | 1958 | 0.5 | 2586 | 21.9 | 48900 |
| Malta | 2004 | 0.4 | 316 | 6.8 | 17200 |
| Netherlands | 1958 | 16.2 | 41526 | 437.8 | 27200 |
| Poland | 2004 | 38.6 | 312685 | 373.2 | 9700 |
| Portugal | 1986 | 10.1 | 92931 | 195.2 | 19400 |
| Slovakia | 2004 | 5.4 | 48845 | 67.3 | 12400 |
| Slovenia | 2004 | 1.9 | 20253 | 37.1 | 19200 |
| Spain | 1986 | 40.2 | 504782 | 850.7 | 21200 |
| Sweden | 1995 | 8.9 | 449964 | 230.7 | 26000 |
| United Kingdom | 1973 | 60.1 | 244820 | 1528 | 25500 |
| Subtotal (EU-25) | 2004 | 454.7 | 3973597 | 10422.2 | 22911 |
2 Greenland left the EC in 1985 3 German reunification in 1990 led to the inclusion of the territory of the former German Democratic Republic.
Notes (for this and later tables):
- Pop is population in millions
- Area is in km²
- GDP in billions of USD, at purchasing power parity, 2001 figures
- GDP per cap is per capita GDP in USD, year as in previous column
Planned further enlargement
Scheduled 2007 enlargement
Bulgaria and Romania have been recommended to join the EU on January 1, 2007, and these dates have been firmly set at the Thessaloniki Summit in 2003.
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP '\'per capita'' |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 7.5 | 110910 | 49.2 | 6500 |
| Romania | 22.3 | 238391 | 169.3 | 7600 |
| Subtotal | 29.8 | 349301 | 218.5 | 7332 |
| EU-25 | 454.9 | 3976952 | 10422.2 | 22911 |
| EU-27 | 484.7 | 4326253 | 10640.7 | 21953 |
Post-2007 enlargement
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 68.1 | 780580 | 489.7 | 7300 |
| Croatia | 4.4 | 56542 | 43.1 | 9800 |
| Macedonia | 2.0 | 25333 | 10.6 | 5100 |
| Serbia and Montenegro | 10.6 | 102350 | 23.15(2002) | 3000(2004) |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.99 | 51129 | 7.3 | 1900(2002) |
| Albania | 3.59 | 28,748 | 15.69 | 4400 |
| Moldova | 4.43 | 33843 | 11.51 | 2600 |
| Subtotal | 97.14 | 1078525 | 601.05 | 4871 |
| EU-34 | 577.4 | 5370935 | 11023.05 | 13412 |
Applicant Status
Bulgaria
Bulgaria is set to join the EU in 2007. Bulgaria has already taken steps to integrate itself with the EU, including unilaterally linking its currency to the Euro (Lithuania and Estonia also did this before entry).
Romania
Romania is set to join the EU in 2007. It is already developed in its accession negotiations and hopes to close talks in 2004 or 2005 so it can join in 2007.
The EU projected that Romania will need over 80 years to reach the level of the most advanced countries in the EU , but this is not considered a serious detriment to membership because Greece will, according to that outlook, reach this level in 50 years and yet is already a member.
Croatia
Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003. The European Commission recommended making it an official candidate in early 2004 and a decision on that is expected by the end of the year.
After Slovenia, Croatia has recovered best from the break-up of the former Yugoslavia and so hopes to become the second former Yugoslav state to become a member, possibly joining by 2007 and most probably by 2010.
Republic of Macedonia
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia applied to become an official candidate in January 2004. The EU will probably reply on whether the accession negotiation will start in 2005.
The FYROM will probably have to resolve its disputes with Greece, or at least reduce them, before talks can begin. The republic also faces an Albanian problem similar to Serbia's, although it still maintains sovereignty over all its territory. It could join around 2010 if Croatia's accession is delayed to this date, or Macedonia could be delayed to join around 2015 with the other West Balkan states.
Turkey
Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for membership in 1999, after having been an Associate Member since 1963, but it has not yet been permitted to start negotiations due to concerns about its human rights record and about the involvement of the military in Turkish politics.
However, recent developments have shown a strong and wide-reaching reform program. At the end of 2004, the EU will decide whether to start accession negotiations with Turkey. Under Justice and Development Party (AKP), a popular pro-European party with Islamist roots, the Turkish government has lifted a ban on the teaching of Kurdish and abolished the death penalty in all circumstances, including wars. Turkey also strongly backed the EU-supported UN plan to reunite Cyprus, a key influence in the successful Turkish Cypriot side of the vote.
Critics oppose Turkish membership for several reasons, including that most of Turkey's territory is not European but Asian, and human rights issues. Proponents answer that Turkey has been intimately involved in European history for about 500 years and that it considers itself a European state. A prevalent point of view in Turkey is that some in the EU are reluctant to accept a Muslim state, albeit a strongly secular one, into what is seen by some as a Christian club.
It is yet unknown when Turkey will join. If negotiations are started in 2004, which is fairly unlikely, the country could join between 2010 and 2015. Many people, however, are saying that Turkey will probably join after 2020, if at all.
Future enlargement candidates and possibilities
Within Europe
Other former Yugoslavian states
The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was reasonably close to applying to join the EEC at the end of 1980s — it was already on a higher level than some member countries like Greece and Portugal. However, it was still a communist state, though with a relatively benign regime when compared with Soviet satellites. Finally, the civil war stopped the integration. At the Thessaloniki summit in 2003, the integration of the former Yugoslav republics and Albania was set as the next major goal of future EU expansion.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina still has many economic as well as political problems. Recently it has been making a slow but steady progress, so the outlook is good.
The Union may show some leniency regarding its economy due to the political issues at stake. Romano Prodi has stated that Bosnia has a chance of joining the EU soon after Croatia, somewhere around 2010, but that it is entirely dependent on local progress and that it may be delayed until 2014 or even later.
Serbia and Montenegro
Serbia and Montenegro may join separately because of economic disputes between the two republics, which still have to settle the decision of whether to continue in a union (around 2006).
Serbia has to deal with the ethnic tensions in the region of Kosovoas well as poverty in the south of Serbia and widespread corruption. Montenegro is having ecological problems and problems with law and crime. Serbia and Montenegro started the reform process in 2000. Depending on their progress, they may join around or after 2015.
Albania
Albania's accession to the Union depends on its economic improvement and resolution of border disputes. Still nobody can predict date of joining since Albania has started communication with outer world only some 15 years ago.
European Free Trade Association
Switzerland
Switzerland began talks with the EEC for membership, but a Swiss referendum in 1992 froze them. Further referenda (the last on March 4, 2001) have shown a majority against membership. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership. The Swiss federal government policy for now is to close specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people and workers [1].
Norway
Norway, like most other Scandinavian states, is reluctant to surrender sovereignty to a central European government. The Norwegian government also wishes to keep control of fishery resources in their territorial waters. Norway has applied twice for EEC and EU membership, but the two referenda on the issue have been lost by the government.
Iceland
Iceland, like Norway, is reluctant to join due to a desire to keep control of fishery resources in its territorial waters. Iceland has never applied for EU membership.
Liechtenstein
Liechtenstein, is (like Norway and Iceland) a member of the European Economic Area. It might consider joining the EU if Switzerland joined.
Microstates
As for the very small states, such as San Marino, Andorra and Monaco, it is unlikely that they will ever join, as their very existence as sovereign nations is tightly bound up with their special economic laws, which are not compatible with EU standards.
The Vatican City is also a microstate that isn't likely to join the EU due to its rather unique status.
Sovereign Order of Malta
Although the Sovereign Order of Malta is recognized by some countries as a sovereign subject of international law, its precise nature (e.g. the question of statehood) is disputed and it has no territory.
Other post-Soviet states
It is generally thought that Russia will be unable to join, at least during the next few decades, since its sheer size would severely offset the internal balance of the Union.
Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, which are or have been closely linked to Russia, will probably remain outside the Union, at least for a significant amount of time.
Both the government and the main opposition of Ukraine advocate joining the EU and developing ties with Europe rather than with Russia. But as with Russia, many are wary of Ukraine's sheer size. A Ukraine-EU Troika meeting in April 2004, on the eve of the newest wave of expansion, dealt a blow to Ukraine's European aspiration when the EU ministers failed to grant market economy status to Ukraine. For the time being, Ukraine will most likely develop some sort of intermediate relation with the EU as it is strongly backed by all major political forces in Poland, a current member with strong historical ties with Ukraine (through the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth). If it reforms enough, it could even gain full membership by around 2020.
Belarus is thought too authoritarian to join the EU, even though it has a fairly high standard of living in comparison to other states in the region. If a new government is put into place, it may join in 2020 with Ukraine, but if conditions remain the same, it will probably not join.
Moldova currently has little hope of joining, since it is not only hampered by poverty but currently leaning more towards Russia than the EU and facing political problems in Transnistria. Its relationship with Romania, which is set to soon become an EU member, has also been strained. At best, it could join the EU in 2020 with Ukraine and Belarus, even though the most likely scenario is either no membership at all, some form of associate membership, or full membership after 2030.
The Caucasus states Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, remain strongly linked to Russia, and so will probably also remain outside the Union for the next couple of decades, although the first two share European culture. The Caucasus is also the site of border conflicts which would need to be resolved.
European dependencies
In theory, the EU treaty covers the European territories for whose external relations a Member State is responsible. In practice this only applies to Gibraltar, and it is not part of the Customs Union. The Aland Islands also have a special status and are part of the EU.
The British crown dependencies of Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man might be said to be in a position similar to many of the microstates in Europe. Their economies are often based on special economic laws incompatible with EU standards. They and the UK sovereign base areas on Cyprus were excluded from the EC when the UK joined in 1973.
The Faroe Islands, a Danish dependency, would be reluctant to join due to the economic significance of its fishery and the need to retain control of those resources in their territorial waters, much like Norway and Iceland. It was excluded when Denmark joined in 1973.
Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland, has adopted several unique measures with the EU regarding travel for its citizens to and from the rest of Russia. Currently it could only join if Russia did, but there are several independence movements within the enclave.
Beyond Europe
Southern Mediterranean (Maghreb) states
Tunisia entered into an Association Agreement with the European Union in 1995 which started removing tariffs and other trade barriers on most goods in the 1998-2008 period. Once the free trade area is fully functional, the status of Tunisia with regards to the EU will be similar to the present status of Norway and Iceland. However, no further involvement is planned beyond that point.
Morocco has submitted applications to join the EU several times, but it has been turned down since it is not considered a European country. Even if this obstacle was ignored, other factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours would still hinder its application.
Israel
The Israeli government has hinted several times that a EU membership bid is a possibility. It is unknown whether talks will begin, given the current instability in the Middle East.
As in the cases of Tunisia and Morocco, the virtue of being geographically outside Europe might preclude its inclusion into the EU as well.
Overseas dependencies
The overseas dependent and autonomous territories of the member countries often have a special status relative to the European Union. In some cases territories not even on the European continent belong to the EU (French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Reunion, the Azores, Madeira, the Canary Islands, Ceuta, and Melilla) yet there are other cases where the European dependencies of member countries are not part of the union. It is fully possible that these could leave or join the union, even though not as full members in their own right.
Greenland
The Danish dependency Greenland was an integral part of Denmark when the country joined in 1973. In 1979 Greenland was granted home rule and following a local referendum it left the European Community, on February 1, 1985. The EC was the predecessor of the European Union and Greenland is unique as an example of a territory having left the organization. Greenland is unlikely to ever rejoin as it becomes increasingly independent, leading to closer integration with its geographical North American neighbours.
External link
| | |
|---|---|
| Member countries: Austria | Belgium | Cyprus | Czech Republic | Denmark | Estonia | Finland | France | Germany | Greece | Hungary | Ireland | Italy | Latvia | Lithuania | Luxembourg | Malta | Netherlands | Poland | Portugal | Slovakia | Slovenia | Spain | Sweden | United Kingdom | |
| Recognised candidate countries likely to join on 1 January 2007: Bulgaria | Romania | |
| Other recognised candidate countries: Turkey | |
| Likely candidate countries: Croatia | Macedonia (FYROM) | |